OK, I think I've been massively wrong with my predictions last night. For a start here is the grid for tomorrow:
1. Lewis Hamilton (McLaren Mercedes)
2. Jenson Button (McLaren Mercedes)
3. Romain Grosjean (Lotus Renault)
4. Michael Schumacher (Mercedes)
5. Mark Webber (Red Bull Racing-Renault)
6. Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing-Renault)
7. Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
8. Pastor Maldonaldo (Williams-Renault)
9. Nico Hulkenberg (Force India Mercedes)
10. Daniel Ricciardo (STR-Ferrari)
11. Jean-Eric Vergne (STR-Ferrari)
12. Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
13. Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber-Ferrari)
14. Bruno Senna (Williams-Renault)
15. Paul di Resta (Force India Mercedes)
16. Felipe Massa (Ferrari)
17. Sergio Perrez (Sauber-Ferrari)
18. Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus-Renault)
19. Heikki Kovalainen (Caterham-Renault)
20. Vitaly Petrov (Caterham-Renault)
21. Timo Glock (Marussia-Cosworth)
22. Charles Pick (Marussia-Cosworth)
DNQ Pedro de la Rosa (HRT-Cosworth)
DNQ Narain Karthikeyan (HRT-Cosworth)
A dominating performance by the two British former world champions in the third qualifying session today gave McLaren P1 and P2 on the grid for tomorrow. No other team came even close in terms of single lap performance. If this car can keep the same tempo in long runs (and I think it can), McLaren are massive favorites for tomorrow. One of the only two cars not guilty of the "ugly nose" sin, the new MP4-27 might be the car to beat this year. This is also the first time in which Button and Hamilton will start side by side on front row. Will there be a fight for the first corner? Hamilton once again outperforms Button in the qualification to put another pole under his tally but can he beat his teammate in the actual race?
There is a Lotus on P3 but it is not Raikkonen. The rookie Romain Grosjean demonstrate a very stong performance in Q1 and Q3 to snatch a place in the company of three former world champions in top four on the grid. It seems that E20 actually has its chances this year but Kimi is not taking them. A really disappointing start for the 2007 F1 champion who managed to get only to P18 and went out of contest in the first qualifying session. We will see from the next few starts which Kimi returned to F1 - the one that won the title by a blink of an eye in 2007 or the one that was very unmotivated and retired in 2009. In the mean time, Grosjean is the real Cinderella of the Albert Park qualification but can he hold his own against the likes of Schumacher, Webber, and Vettel on the start tomorrow?
A solid performance in the testing and in the practice sessions yesterday suggested that Mercedes are really close to the top this year. It seems this is indeed the case. After a one-two in Q2, Schumacher and Rosberg managed to collect P4 and P7, respectively, on the grid. Brawn obviously has not lost his acumen to design amazing F1 cars, despite the disappointing W01 and W02 in the previous two years. Schumacher's start from the second row alongside Grosjean is his bet performance in a qualification since his comeback. MS could not really challenge the McLarens but it is noteworthy that he managed to outqualify Rosberg, a feat that seemed impossible last year. Is the seven-time world champion smelling blood? Can he roll back the years and not only defend himself against the two Red Bulls behind him but also attack the MP4-27s at the front? We all remember that in 2011 the King was really great at snatching places during the start.
R8 seems to be a mediocre successor of R6 and R7 as for the first time in a long while Red Bull are not even close to the front row. Not only were Vettel and Webber slower than the McLarens but even the fellow Renault-powered Lotus and Mercedes got the better of them in all qualifying sessions. Mark uncharacteristically outperformed his teammate and reigning double world champion Sebastian. Vettel who time and time again would just take 0.7 of second in Q3 out of his pocket last year seemed dismal during the Albert Park qualification in 2012. Can he still make it three in a row? Can the Red Bulls put a better performance during the race?
Mamma Mia, where are Ferrari? After Alonso went into the gravel midway through Q2, Massa's could not manage more than 16 on the grid, leaving the team with out a top 10 driver for the start tomorrow. Ferrari's deteorating performance starts to look quite similar to the state of the Scuderia BMS (before Michael Schumacher). Even after retiring in 2006, he retained a consulting role with the black horses for two more years that actually kept his championship-winning team together. Far more than driver, Michael was the unifying force behind Ferrari's success (even after retirement). As he went to Mercedes to become once more an active driver, the Scuderia Ferrari seems lost. If I was Luca di Montezemolo, I would kick Massa in the end of the season (he is obviously not the same driver since his 2009 accident) and hire Schumacher back. On the other hand, if Schumi does retire again in the end of the season, the second he does so I would hire him as team principal. He obviously knows how to pull the strings in the Italian team and they are still the team of his heart. Why not? It can hardly get any worse than not qualifying for the last session of the qualification.
The Rest
Williams managed a surprising eight position just behind McLaren, Lotus, Mercedes, and Red Bull as the 1996 champion with them Damon Hill kick-started a commenting gig with Sky. Can the grey haired Brit out-perform fellow former Williams driver Coulthard in the off-track battle for the hearts and TV sets of Britain?
If you liked this post you might also like my review on first three episodes of The Grid and my somewhat inaccurate 2012 F1 season prediction. What are your expectations for the race tomorrow? Are you as exited as I am that the balance of power on the grid seems to be shifting.
You can also follow me on twitter, where I will be live-tweating the race tomorrow at @dsj070 :)
So the 2012 season of Formula 1 is (almost) upon us. This weekend is the kick-off in sunny Australia. 1,5 months after the dramatic finale of Ausie Open, Melbourne hosts the other worldwide famous sport event on the continent.
The Albert Park race is one of twelve this year that will not be hosted in Europe. In a bid to make the Formula truly global, Bernie Ecclestone's management team has secured contracts with tracks in Asia, Australia, North and South America. This year the number of races hosted in Europe and in Asia will be the same - 8 each. A representation equality that FIFA cannot afford in its World Cup. As Formula 1 race visits remain prohibitively expensive for most developing countries, except for the Asian Tigers and BRIC, there will be no races in Africa (the last race on the continent was in 1993). This season will be the longest in the history of the championship with 20 (expected) races, spanning more than eight months between the middle of March and the end of November.
Despite no major rule changes, this is a year of firsts. Besides the length of the competition, this will also be the season with most former champions starting on the grid. The title of Sebastian Vettel will be contested by five other former champions and maybe Massa, Webber, and Rosberg. The overall winners of 14 titles will meet to determine the "King of Kings."
The 24-year-old current F1 champion holds most youngest ever records in the series. He was the youngest driver to score points in a race, to achieve a pole position, to win a race, to win the title, and to become a double world champion. In the fight to become triple world champion, Vettel will race Michael Schumacher, whose first title was one in 1994 when Vettel was 7(!). Being a German and an evident F1 fan, Sebastian grew upon supporting Michael. However, once he gets on the track all feelings of respect for MS and Ferrari disappear and Vettel is ready to do whatever it takes to win. He has mixed feelings towards the nickname given to him by some fans. While Seb is pleased to be compared with the Great Michael, he obviously wants to leave his own mark on the history of the formula.
Funny Quote on the subject: "Well, its just a joke. I've asked my mum and Michael really isn't my father."
Further to being the fastest man on the grid in the last two years and a really great driver, Sebastian is also a "media darling." He willingly gives interviews, always with a big smile on his face. He seems to be able to hold his liquor quite well, an ability necessary to survive the post-race pressures of the F1 grid. The funny video below demonstrates this and his talent of a stand-up comedian.
Expectations for 2012: The pre-season performance seems to suggest that Vettel will gain be very hard to beat. I expect him to retain the title, even though the challengers will be closer than last year.
After spending eight uneventful years in F1, Button seemed almost content that he would never be one of the selected few, who become champions. Until the new regulations in 2009 came along and his Ross Brawn-designed car brought him the title. He joined McLaren in 2010 to start a British dream team partnership with Lewis Hamilton. Despite Hamilton's seniority in the team, Jenson managed to repeatedly outperform him in the races and reach the runner-up spot in 2011 (Vettel was untouchable at the top).
Expectations for 2012: He will be a lot closer to Vettel but not good enough (the qualifications are his big weakness) - a runner up.
A real F1 prodigy. Hamilton's first two years on the grid were particularly eventful. He lost the title in the last race of 2007 and won it 2008 in the last corner of the last GP. After that, however, his form has slumped. A conflict with his father and problems with on-again, off-again singer girlfriend Nicole Scherzinger only amplified his on-track tendency to participate in crashes (usually with Massa). He managed to achieve 3 wins last year but was never even close to challenging Vettel, who won eleven races.
Expectations for 2012: If he sorts his personal problems out maybe he will begin regaining his old form. Since he announced his second brake-up with Nicole last year, he was seen again with her, suggesting that the book is not closed there. This means that he might still be out of it mentally this year. I don't think without his full focus he can be a real competitor this year - third place.
After coming close to challenging Schumacher in 2003, Raikkonen finally managed to become champion himself in 2007 by the narrowest of margins. Kimi won the title for Ferrari by 1 point in the last race, even though just before it he was third. His drop of form in 2008 and especially 2009 led to his retirement from F1. Two years of WRC disappointment, however, have driven him back to Formula 1 for a meet-up with his old rivals Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso and the (barely adult) prodigy Vettel. Most other F1 stars seem quite excited that Kimi is coming back as he is notorious for his drinking habits. Kimi is known for being specifically economical with word so taking an interview with him is always a formidable task.
Expectations for 2012: The real speed of the new cars is still unclear but it is unlikely that Kimi's Lotus would be able to match Red Bull and McLaren. A position somewhere in top 10 would not be unrealistic.
A couple of years ago, Alonso was the also the youngest double world champion. His domination with Renault in 2005 and 2006 were among the reasons for Michael Schumacher to retire in 2006. After a disappointing spell with McLaren in which he was never treated with the respect that the reigning double world champion deserves and a brief return to Renault, Alonso ended up taking MS and Raikkonen's position as Ferrari's lead driver. He narrowly missed the title in 2010 and in 2011 managed to completely outperform teammate Massa.
Expectations for 2012: Ferrari's new car has probably the most revolutionary of the so called ugly noses but seems not to be fast enough to compete with the Red Bulls during the testing. I expect Nando to be on top of the car again but I'm not sure he can really advance further than forth.
Almost all Formula 1 "most" records belong to one man and that's Michael Schumacher. He is undoubtfully the greatest F1 driver ever and my personal favorite since the very first races I saw back in the 90's. He has the most titles, the most wins, the most pole positions, and ....the list goes on and on. He is the King of F1 but he seems lost lately. MS retired in 2006 but decided to come back in 2010 because Formula 1 is more than a job for him, it is his life - it is what he loves doing. I think the decision to drive for Mercedes is part of the reason why Schumi seems unhappy. Ferrari was his family and being in Mercedes simply cannot compete with that. Both after his first title with Ferrari (2000) and sixth overall (2003) Michael stated that he was not as happy for himself as he is for Ferrari. Driving for Mercedes just seems wrong: MS does not belong there and his heart will always be in Maranello.
On the funny side of things - Michael is probably the only F1 star that can successfully match Kimi Raikkonen's drinking abilities. MS is a beautiful memory of the romantic Formula 1 of the past - rougher, tougher, less media-friendly.
Expectations for 2012: I don't think MS has the car to make a successful title challenge but I do hope he will manage to snatch at least one victory before his contract with Mercedes expires at the end of the year. And after that I hope he will just go back home to Ferrari.
If you liked this post, you might like also my post on the new online motorsport show The Grid: The World After TV: The Grid.
Who is your favorite among these six current and former champions?
